RSS
 

Posts Tagged ‘predicts’

Analysis predicts drone Remote ID will cost 9X more than expected, DJI urges FAA to reconsider ruling

06 Mar

After numerous delays, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) released its Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) for the Remote Identification of Unmanned Aircraft Systems at the end of last year. The 60-day public commenting period closed this past Monday, March 2nd, with over 52,000 comments submitted during that time.

DJI, the world’s leading drone manufacturer, has supported the need for Remote ID since 2017. In the interest of moving the industry forward, a proper ruling would allow flights at night, over people and beyond visual line of sight. When the NPRM was released, however, DJI publicly chastised the FAA for not incorporating recommendations submitted by the 74 stakeholders that make up the Aviation Rulemaking Committee.

In its 89-page comment to the FAA, DJI cites independent economic analysis that was prepared by Dr. Christian Dippon, Managing Director at NERA Economic Consulting. The study concludes that the societal costs associated with the Remote ID NPRM would total $ 5.6 billion. This makes it 9 times more costly than the $ 582 million the FAA predicts for the next decade.

“I worry about an impact on innovation, with fewer people interested in using drones,” – Brendan Schulman

The long-term ramifications, should the Remote ID NPRM pass in its current form, will extend beyond financial burdens. ‘I worry about an impact on innovation, with fewer people interested in using drones. Our economist’s survey found at least a 10% drop in drone activity if the proposal were implemented, but I think it could be much higher as the full impact is felt by operators,’ Brendan Schulman, DJI’s Vice President of Policy & Legal Affairs, tells DPReview.

Remote ID, simply put, is a digital license plate for drones. It allows authorities to identify the location, serial number, and a remote pilot’s identity in near real-time. The FAA is proposing that almost all drones should transmit that information over wireless networks to a service provider’s database. NERA’s study concludes that the monthly cost of a network-based service for a remote pilot would be $ 9.83 instead of the FAA’s $ 2.50 estimate.

A few vocal critics have suggested that DJI’s involvement in drafting Remote ID rulemaking has served their own interests, and that regulations will amount to a multi-billion dollar gain for the company. ‘The critics missed the context and history. Since 2017 we knew Remote ID was inevitable as a government mandate, and have been advocating for the best possible result for all drone users: low costs and burdens. Everything we have done on this topic has been focused on those goals. Keep costs low and respect drone user privacy. For example, in March 2017 we released a whitepaper strongly advocating for pilot privacy,’ Schulman explains.

DJI has advocated for a ‘drone-to-phone’ solution that provides Remote ID information on common smartphones without burdening drone operators with any extra costs or effort. DJI says that its solution is cheaper and easier than what the FAA is proposing. Any new ruling on Remote ID will not likely take effect until 2024.

Articles: Digital Photography Review (dpreview.com)

 
Comments Off on Analysis predicts drone Remote ID will cost 9X more than expected, DJI urges FAA to reconsider ruling

Posted in Uncategorized

 

The FAA predicts the commercial drone market could triple in size by 2023

08 May

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) recently released its two-decade Aerospace Forecast for fiscal years 2019-2039. While they’ve successfully predicted steady growth in the drone industry over the past five years, this latest annual update reveals that they’ve underestimated the phenomenal rate of adoption for unmanned aerial vehicles.

‘A comparison of last year’s data with this year’s (2018) shows that the annual growth rate to be around 13 percent,’ reads the report. ‘This continues to be substantial growth as anticipated from the introduction of drones as a recreation activity facilitated by falling equipment prices and improved technology, such as built-in cameras and relatively easy maneuvering.’

Last year, predictions put roughly 452,000 commercial (non-model) drones in the sky by 2022. Now it appears that the industry will reach that landmark around the beginning of next year. According to the latest data collected, if trends continue, the FAA foresees market growth tripling in size over the next five years, topping off at 835,000 drones by 2023 – an average annual growth rate of 24.7 percent.

The FAA has registered more than 116,000 remote pilots through the end of 2018. Officials expect that number to reach roughly 350,000 pilots with Part 107 certification by 2023.

The FAA has registered more than 116,000 remote pilots through the end of 2018. Officials expect that number to reach roughly 350,000 pilots with Part 107 certification by 2023. In this category, “the pace of monthly registration, almost 15,000, is nearly 3-times higher than the pace at which non-model aircraft owners registered their craft during the same time last year.”

Despite the significant growth, the FAA acknowledged that as with all technologies, model aircraft (non-commercial drone) sales will inevitably slow as ‘the pace of falling prices diminishes and the early adopters begin to experience limits in their experiments or simply eagerness plateaus.’

Since the FAA’s online registration system went into effect on Dec. 21, 2015, more than 900,000 owners have registered their drones through September 2018. The agency estimates 1.25 million drones are currently in use across the U.S. with growth projected to reach 1.4 million by 2023. Monthly owner registration for model aircraft averaged around 8,000 – 9,000 per month from January – December, 2018. The overall pace of registration has decreased to about half compared to the same period the year before.

As the commercial industry continues to grow, new sectors and uses for drone technology will continue to emerge. Google’s Wing recently received permission to deliver small commercial goods to consumers, a first for the FAA to grant any company. A kidney was transported, via drone, to a transplant patient this past week.

Articles: Digital Photography Review (dpreview.com)

 
Comments Off on The FAA predicts the commercial drone market could triple in size by 2023

Posted in Uncategorized

 

Sony executive predicts Nikon and Canon will go full-frame mirrorless within a year

13 Mar
Kenji Tanaka, Sony Senior General Manager of the Digital Imaging Business Group | Photo by Carey Rose

Earlier this month at CP+, we sat down with several camera company executives for in-depth interviews about the photo industry, trying to tease out what the future holds for the cameras and lenses of tomorrow. One of the people we spoke with was Sony’s Senior General Manager of the Digital Imaging Business Group, Kenji Tanaka, and he had an interesting prediction. He told us to look for Nikon and Canon full-frame mirrorless “by next year’s CP+.”

We’re still working on finalizing the full interview for you, but we wanted to share this tidbit right away:

One of the reasons that companies like Sigma and Tamron are creating native Sony FE lenses is that they’re looking forward to a future where full-frame mirrorless is the norm. How long will that be?

This is just my personal opinion, but I think that maybe by next year’s CP+ you’ll see full-frame mirrorless cameras from Canon and Nikon. I think [by then] they will be participating in this market.

Just look at our technologies, like eye focus. All of that data comes from the imaging sensor. In DSLRs, the data comes from separate sensors. The main imaging sensor is blanked out, 90% of the time by the mirror. The sensor is turned off. But the imaging sensor is very important. So if cameras are going to develop, and be more able to capture the moment, manufacturers have to develop mirrorless technologies. So within one year, I think.

Rumors of Nikon and Canon full-frame mirrorless cameras have been swirling for years, but no official confirmation has ever come down the pike. The best we’ve managed to get so far is this somewhat vague statement from Nikon, and confirmation that Canon is now willing to cannibalize its DSLR sales to invest in mirrorless cameras.

Obviously Kenji Tanaka does not speak for Canon or Nikon—he even made sure to mention this was his “personal opinion”—but he has a much better high-level understanding of the camera industry’s ins and outs that most of us. In other words: we take his ‘personal opinions’ quite seriously.

The latest whispers on the rumor mill claim there’s a Canon full-frame mirrorless prototype in the wild, and up until CP+ came and went, many were hoping to see a full-frame mirrorless from Nikon at the show. As we move further into 2018 and look ahead to Photokina, Photo Plus Expo, and next year’s CP+ show, maybe all of those rumors will finally start paying off.

Articles: Digital Photography Review (dpreview.com)

 
Comments Off on Sony executive predicts Nikon and Canon will go full-frame mirrorless within a year

Posted in Uncategorized

 

MIT algorithm predicts photo popularity

29 Apr

Screen_Shot_2014-04-25_at_2.58.49_PM.png

Ask the average social media user what makes a photo popular online and they’ll probably answer ‘cats’ or ‘pretty women’. That gut feeling has now been confirmed by MIT PhD candidate Aditya Khosla who has analyzed more than 2.3 million images hosted on Flickr to answer the question ‘what makes an image popular’? Learn more 

News: Digital Photography Review (dpreview.com)

 
Comments Off on MIT algorithm predicts photo popularity

Posted in Uncategorized